In a electorate as deeply divided as the one we are experiencing, turnout will determine the outcome of the 2018 midterms. That is the reality facing Democrats as Republican voters begin gearing up to party like it’s 2016.
Forget the polls. They mean nothing either because they’re deliberately skewed or because their methodologies are faulty – or both.
As we learned in 2016, polls are inherently inaccurate for a variety of reasons, including reasons of manipulation for political purposes – fundraising and voter suppression – and because there is no truly adequate measure of voter intensity.
Eighteen days out from the 2016 election Hillary Clinton was being hailed as our next president and left wing pundits were touting her chances of sweeping the House and and gaining a ruling majority in the Senate.
How did that turn out?
The world was shocked, they it shouldn’t have been, because political outsider Donald Trump connected with Republican voters in a way that had been missing since the days of Ronald Reagan.
The same way that Obama invigorated Democrat voters with hope and change, Trump renewed a sense of patriotism that had been beaten into submission in Republican voters by the succession of the past four Globalist presidents.
Trump promised a return to past glory and voters turned out massively to attend his rallies and hear him extol America First.
And, therein lies the reason to expect a repeat of the Republican red wave in 2016.
As president, Trump has fulfilled his promise to restore much of America’s greatness but there is still much to be done.
A Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll released yesterday, found that 25% of Republicans ranked immigration as the most important midterm issue while the “Economy and Jobs” (23%) was second.
How closely do both of these issues track with both Trump’s accomplishments and Democrat promises to reverse both if they are given the reins of power in November.
Almost simultaneous to the release of the poll, Trump appeared to have successfully diffused a border crossing crisis intended to coincide with the midterms. It should be noted that this is not completely certain yet, CNN is reporting that the Mexican Ambassador is saying that no deal has been reached.
Trump’s triumph yesterday came a day after the U.S. was declared the world’s most competitive economy.
Republican voters also realize that Trump’s promise to drain the swamp, is the only way to ensure Trump’s victories on our behalf can be enduring.
There is also empirical evidence that points to a coming red tsunami. President Trump’s rallies are more well attended and raucous than they were in 2016 when voters were unsure their hero would be able to deliver on his promises.
Trump voters have gotten their first taste of winning since the 1980’s and they’re going to do everything they can to participate in maintaining his (and their) winning streak.
This is similar in many ways to how attendance surges for winning teams.
We are not alone in this assessment.
Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, has emerged as one of our more insightful political commentators. He accurately predicted Donald Trump’s election in 2015. Adams came to this conclusion based on Trump’s persuasive skills.
This brings us back to Trump’s tireless string of campaign rallies we referenced earlier. He is making the case to Republican voters that these individual races have serious national implications.
While Adams told Breitbart that predicting the outcome of district-by-district battles based on the persuasive abilities of a president, because there are so many other bigger variables to take into count, he did predict record turnout by Republican voters.
“… one of the patterns Republicans enjoyed in 2016 was having the other side be surprised. And they really enjoyed it — I’m talking about the kind of joy you can talk about over the course of your lifetime. And the Republican personality — I realize this is a gross generalization — is that it’s not always about the talk, it’s about the showing up. Republicans are going to show up.”
When Adams was asked who has the more persuasive message as we enter the final countdown to the midterms he didn’t hesitate to answer, probably because the president had commandeered Adams’ own message during last night’s rally in Montana:
“Democrats produce mobs. Republicans produce jobs.”
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 19, 2018
That may be even better than “it’s the economy, stupid.”